The Eastern Pacific is currently experiencing a surge in tropical activity, with the formation of Potential Tropical Cyclone One-C, which is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm named Hernan by Friday. This development comes amidst a typical surge in activity for this time of year, fueled by an El Niño event and record-breaking sea-surface temperatures. The storm's path is concerning, as it could bring heavy rainfall and life-threatening flooding to the Hawaiian Islands, particularly the Big Island and Maui. Residents and visitors are urged to monitor the system closely.
The Eastern Pacific's busy season is well underway, with seven named systems already forming. This is nine days ahead of schedule, with Hernan likely becoming the eighth named system by the end of the week. The basin's activity is characterized by peaks, with the first occurring now, followed by another in early September and a third toward the end of the month. Despite the region's activity, only one tropical storm, Boris, has made landfall in Mexico.
In the Northwestern Pacific, Tropical Depression 16W (Nangka) and 13W continue to move over open waters, riding a high-pressure ridge. Both are expected to weaken into remnant lows by the end of the week, staying away from land. Meanwhile, the Atlantic basin has its third named tropical system, Tropical Storm Cristobal, which formed from a trough exiting the United States. It is expected to become a remnant by Thursday, moving away from the U.S. over cooler waters.
Two tropical waves are being monitored in the Atlantic. Invest 92L has a high chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm, potentially bringing beneficial rainfall to the Caribbean islands, which are currently experiencing drought. Another wave, not yet labeled as Invest, is located south of the Cabo Verde Islands and could develop into a tropical depression early next week. However, vertical wind shear in the region poses a threat to these systems.
The Eastern Pacific's activity is linked to El Niño and record sea-surface temperatures, while the Atlantic's conditions are consistent with the strong El Niño event. These factors contribute to the overall busy tropical season, with potential impacts on various regions, including the Hawaiian Islands, Mexico, and the Caribbean. As the season progresses, monitoring these systems and their potential impacts is crucial for preparedness and safety.
